The Electoral College...

I'm forecasting a popular vote allocation of something in the neighborhood of:

• Obama 51.5
• McCain 46.3
  Other 2.2
  

Unfortunately I was unable to post the graphic consisting of my predictions of the states results for tomorrow's general election. The map above shows the state results for the 2004 general election.

• The Red States are Bush's totaling 286
• The Blue States are Kerry's totaling 252
• It takes 270 Electoral Votes to clinch the Presidency.

Now on to 2008

To show what a truly awful year it has been to be a Republican chew on this little tidbit; McCain is only contesting 2 states Kerry won in 2004, Pennsylvania 21 electoral votes and New Hampshire 4 electoral votes. McCain is a long shot at best in both states. So making the fairly safe assumption that Senator Obama will win all of the Kerry States he begins with a baseline of 252 electoral votes. This means he only has to peal away states totaling 18 electoral votes from the GOP states. This shouldn't be a problem. Iowa and it's 7 electoral votes are a slam dunk. New Mexico's 5 are solid as well. This leaves Obama 6 points short of clinching the White House. So Where do the final 6 votes come from. My guess: Everywhere. Obama's superior resources coupled with the finical crisis for which Republicans are bearing a disproportionate amount of the blame spells electoral disaster for the McCain/Palin ticket. I think it should shake out this way in the swing states.

Obama McCain
Ohio (20) Missouri (11)
Florida (27) Indiana (11)
Virginia (13) North Carolina (15)
Colorado (9) Georgia (15)

Nevada (5) North Dakota (3)
Pennsylvania (21) Montana (3)
New Hampshire (4)

So If I'm correct in my projections regarding the swing states it would mean that Obama has kept all the Kerry states and added Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Colorado,Nevada, New Mexico and Virgina totaling 86 new electoral votes for a final tally of:

Obama 338 McCain 200

Of course this is give or take given the potential that Ohio, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana are true toss ups states...