I have read countless articles in recent days from the Washington punditry marveling at the relative tightness of national polls. The thought process goes something like this:
The Democrats lead in every relevant political metric.... Obama is an uber-charismatic candidate on a groundbreaking mission... while McCain is boring candidate in his 70's that looks a lot like Bob Dole redux.. The public perception is that the Democrats would be better on the economy, better on Iraq, better on the environment and the list goes on....
Given these factor the press wonders how Obama's lead in the average of national polls is a mere 4.8%. There are number of factors that play into the relative closeness of the recent polling data that might be discussed on this blog at a later date if Obama hasn't busted this thing open by mid September. I suspect Obama will win a decisive victory with something in the range of 53%.
Current polling trends seem to indicate that McCain has begun to close on Obama in some of the key battle ground states... Colorado, Minnesota and Ohio have all tightened in the last two weeks. Pundits have credited an aggressive McCain TV ad campaign with helping the Arizona Senator pull close. In response the Obama camp has raised it's television buys in many markets.
In 1996 President Clinton's tops political advisor Dick Morris developed an aggressive ad strategy targeting important political markets that were just under the radar. The ad buys took places in areas that would not raise red flags inside the beltway. This allowed Clinton to talk to the electorate of key states without altering an army of Republican political operatives who would have crafted a counter attack. On the strength of Morris' stealth and a developing economy Clinton handled his Republican opponent without breaking a sweat.
The dicey thing about national political strategies is that a "trick play" only works once. I'm no more than an armchair political observer and I know about Morris' brilliant move. Think about the countless hours that the political operatives and cable news talking heads have spent pouring over the minutest details of the '96 contest.
I bring up The Clinton/Morris model because I think something similar is afoot in the 2008 Obama campaign. While the McCain team counties to call plays from the conventional general election playbook buying ads in swing markets the Obama camp is trying something different.
A recent Boston Globe article detailed the Obama camps swing state strategy. In two words: paid staffers. Obama's top political strategist David Axelrod and his surrogates have allocated large amounts of campaign cash to construct an army of Obama operatives on the ground in Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Of course paid staffers are nothing new, McCain has his fair share on the ground in these states. What makes Obama's play unique is the sheer number of operatives the campaign employs. In the aforementioned states Obama is building staffs of 250-300 full time operatives. Such numbers are unheard of in prior political campaigns.
The process of hiring, implementing and paying the enormous staff of operatives is in part responsible for the relative closeness of the national polls. Axelrod is building a team that will hit its stride post convention when most undecided voters will make their minds. While McCain narrows the polls spending his money on TV ads Obama is putting together a get-out-the-vote infrastructure the likes of which we have never seen.
In September when general election financing guidelines kick in Senator McCain will be at a huge finical disadvantage as he has opted to take federalized election funding. This means he will be given $89 million dollars to finance his campaign. The rub is he is only allowed to spend $89 million dollars. Months back Senator Obama decided to opt out of federal financing opting to foot the bill through his impressive fundraising machine. Obama's choice allows him to raise and spend unlimited funds during the general election season. This in theory should allow the Illinois Senator to match McCain dollar for dollar on the air waves while overwhelming the Republican with his vastly superior ground operation.
In the post election coverage pay attention to analysis around Obama's superior ground operation being the difference in tight states. Remember that while McCain was narrowing the polling gap in August Obama was constructing the vehicle to drive away with the win in November. Pay attention to it now because in 2012 both parties will have obscene numbers of paid staff in swing states. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee better be paying attention...
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